What If

Put personal numbers against the public record.

Choose a starting amount, model and date to compare a hypothetical reconstruction with SPY. The separate forward illustration uses long-run research CAGRs.

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Scenario Calculator

Profile history versus SPY, plus a simple assumption-based projection

ReconstructedFeb 3, 2026 through Oct 14, 2026

Reconstruction throughOct 14, 2026

Model history replayWhat if this amount followed this model's hypothetical path?

Initial amountHistorical start

Balanced Window$50,466

101.86% over Feb 3, 2026 through Oct 14, 2026

SPY Same Window$27,903

11.61% over the exact same dates

This is a new hypothetical reconstruction, not account execution results. Your amount starts after the first session close on or after your date. Through June 30, targets are reconstructed from retained research inputs, not audited contemporaneous allocations; later targets follow saved publications at the next open. Overnight returns are retained. Split-adjusted price returns exclude dividends and taxes. Cash earns 0%; modeled stock trading costs are included.

Forward illustrationWhat could the same amount look like using validated historical CAGRs?

Projection years

10Y Balanced Illustration$235,625

Uses Balanced backtest CAGR of 25.15%

10Y SPY Illustration$55,698

Uses SPY backtest CAGR of 8.34% over the same window

These illustrations use validated backtest CAGRs from May 1, 1996 through Jun 24, 2026. They are not forecasts. The research models stock trading fees and slippage. Actual account results can differ because of fees and trade timing or prices.

Why it helpsAbstract percentages become concrete when they touch a real account size.

This tool is intentionally simple. It is meant to help visitors understand the scale of compounding and benchmark differences, not imply that future returns will repeat. The published artifacts remain the source of truth.